Monday, August 15, 2011

Juan Cole: Rebels Advance, Surround Tripoli, as Qaddafi Totters

From: Cort Greene
Sent: Monday, August 15, 2011 4:26 AM

Libyan interior minister 'flies to Egypt'
[image: Breaking news]

Libya's interior minister has arrived in Egypt on an unannounced holiday
with nine members of his family, officials at Cairo airport say.

Nasser al-Mabruk Abdullah arrived on a special plane from Tunisia and told
Egyptian officials that he was "on a tourist visit", the sources said.

The visit has led to speculation of a possible defection from Col Muammar
Gaddafi's inner circle.

It comes as rebel fighters advance on Col Gaddafi's stronghold in Tripoli.


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Rebels Advance, Surround Tripoli, as Qaddafi Totters

Posted on 08/15/2011 by Juan

The long slow slog of the Libyan struggle to throw off the rule of Muammar
Qaddafi, accelerated this weekend, possibly decisively, with rebel forces
making *major
advances.*<http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/africa/5442750/Libyan-rebels-make-ma
jor-advance
>Tripoli
was said to be ready to
*embrace the rebel youth when they came
into*<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/8
701512/Libya-Tripoli-braces-for-Gaddafis-final-curtain.html
>the
capital.

Free Libya forces *made substantial advances over the weekend, coming up
from Zintan to take much of
Zawiya*<http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2011/0815/1224302449600.ht
ml
>on
the coast, with the help of the majority in the city that opposes
dictator Muammar Qaddafi. Zawiya was the site of among the first and biggest
anti-Qaddafi demonstrations, and was brutally repressed with tank and
artillery fire on unarmed noncombatants by Qaddafi brigades. Since March it
has been under secret police rule, but that was thrown off jointly by locals
and by their allies from the Western Mountain region to the south.

Not only did they take most of Zawiya, but they went into the neighboring
towns of Surman and Gharyan, where there was heavy fighting. If the Free
Libya fighters can keep Zawiya, they can cut Tripoli off from arms and
supplies that flowed to Qaddafi from smugglers in Tunisia along the
Mediterranean. Zawiya itself has an important petroleum refinery, which
could end up being denied to Qaddafi in Tripoli.

To the east of the capital, forces from Misrata *finally took the town of
Tawarga,*<http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1146904/1/.h
tml
>where
Qaddafi forces had been based and from which they sent Grad rockets on
Misrata indiscriminately, killing fair numbers of civilians. The Aljazeera
correspondent in Tawarga says it is a ghost town, with the loyalist troops
and inhabitants having abruptly and mysteriously fled. Misrata can no longer
be shelled from that town.

*A loyalist officer who was captured and then
defected*<http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/defected-gaddafi-colonel-says
-libyan-army-will-soon-collapse/story-e6frg6n6-1226114797251
>has
told reporters from Misrata that the Tripoli regime is extremely
divided and that the capital is near to falling. He said that Qaddafi's
forces consist of regular army, militiamen, and mercenaries. The
mercenaries, paid well by Qaddafi with oil money he usurped from his people,
surround the troops in formation and prevent them from retreating or
defecting. But there have been clashes between militias and mercenaries.

Free Libya forces also took another neighborhood in the divided oil city of
Brega in the east over the weekend.

The rebels and their NATO air allies have pursued a long, slow rollback of
Qaddafi's brigades. The latter had committed numerous crimes against
humanity as they attempted to crush the popular urban demonstrations last
March. Although there have been some unfortunate actions by the
undisciplined rebels, Human Rights Watch concluded that they cannot be
compared to the systematic crimes of the Qaddafi regime.

The forces in Zawiya were speaking of going on to Tripoli within a month.

Despite the doubts of the pundits, it cannot be assumed that these victories
are temporary. Although it is true that some towns, like Ra's Lanouf, have
changed hands more than once since the struggle began, it is also true that
the Free Libya forces have taken and held major territory even against
fierce Qaddafi attacks, as with Misrata and the Western Mountain region.

Qaddafi forces do not appear to have defended Zawiya very vigorously,
suggesting a collapse of esprit de corps. The same conclusion could be
reached on observing the sudden decamping of Qaddafi loyalists from Tawarga,
which left even the rebels puzzled. Likewise, NATO bombing raids appear to
have increased in effectiveness (the road from Zintan to Zawiya is said to
show signs of intensive bombardment of Qaddafi military outposts and
depots), with strategic targets chosen that will help the rebel advance. For
some time NATO wasted time and support by trying to hit Qaddafi's compound
and decapitate the regime, which had a low chance of success.

Despite a defiant television appearance Sunday in Tripoli, Qaddafi must have
a premonition that his rule of Libya is effectively over with. His last
'million man march' in the capital drew only 100 people. Mysterious
negotiations between his rump government and the Transitional National
Council, which now has the bulk of the country, *took place in Tunisia on
Sunday evening* <http://en.trend.az/regions/met/arabicr/1918183.html>. Were
they discussing the terms of Qaddafi's exile?


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