The Conservative Counter-Attack in Latin America
By MIGUEL TINKER SALAS
Counterpunch: Aug 7-9, 2009
I would submit that events in Honduras are not isolated, but rather part of
a conservative counterattack taking shape in Latin America. For some time,
the right has been rebuilding in Latin America; hosting conferences, sharing
experiences, refining their message, working with the media, and building
ties with allies in the United States. This is not the lunatic right fringe,
but rather the mainstream right with powerful allies in the middle class
that used to consider themselves center, but have been frightened by recent
left electoral victories and the rise of social movements. With Obama in the
White House and Clinton in the State Department they have now decided to
act. Bush/Cheney and company did not give them any coverage and had become
of little use to them. A "liberal" in the White House, gives conservative
forces the kind of coverage they had hoped for. It is no coincidence that
Venezuelan opposition commentators applauded the naming of Clinton to the
State Department claiming that they now had an ally in the administration.
The old cold-warrior axiom that the best antidote against the left is a
liberal government in Washington gains new meaning under Obama with Clinton
at the State Department.
Coup leaders in Honduras and their allies continue to play for time.
Washington's continuing vacillation is allowing them to exhaust this option,
but so are right-wing governments in Colombia, Mexico, Panama and Peru.
After all, this coup is not just about Honduras but also about left success
in Latin America, of which Honduras was the weakest link. It is increasingly
becoming obvious that there is no scenario under which elites in Honduras
will accept Zelaya back. I do not think that they have a plan "B" on this
matter and this speaks to the kind of advice they are getting from forces in
the U.S. and the region. If Zelaya comes back, the Supreme Court, the
Congress, the military and the church all-loose credibility and it opens the
door for the social and political movements in Honduras to push for radical
change that conservative forces would find more difficult to resist.
But Honduras is only part of the equation. Colombia's decision to accept as
many as 7 new U.S. military bases (3 airbases, including Palanquero, 2 army
bases, and 2 naval bases one on the Pacific and one on the Caribbean),
dramatically expands the U.S. military's role in the country and throughout
the region. The Pentagon has been eyeing the airbase at Palanquero with its
complex infrastructure and extensive runway for some time. This is a very
troubling sign that will alter the balance of forces in the region, and
speaks volumes about how the Obama administration plans to respond to change
in Latin America. A possible base on the Caribbean coast of Colombia would
also offer the recently reactivated U.S. Fourth Fleet, a convenient harbor
on the South American mainland. In short, Venezuela would be literally
encircled. However, Venezuela is not the only objective. It also places the
Brazilian Amazon and all its resources within striking distance of the U.S.
military, as well as the much sought after Guarani watershed. After public
criticism from Bachalet of Chile, Lula of Brazil and Chávez of Venezuela,
Uribe refused to attend the 10 August meeting of UNASUR, the South American
Union, where he would be expected to explain the presence of the U.S. bases.
The meeting of the UNASUR security council was scheduled to take up the
issue of the bases and Bolivia's suggestion for a unified South American
response to drug trafficking. Instead, Uribe has launched his own personal
diplomacy traveling to 5 different countries in the region to explain his
actions. In addition, Obama's National Security Advisor James Jones is in
Brazil trying to justify the U.S. position on the bases.
The recent media war launched by Uribe against Ecuador and Correa once again
claiming financing of the FARC and the more recent offensive against
Venezuela concerning 30 year old Swedish missiles, that like, the Reyes
computers, cannot be independently verified, have filled the airwaves in
Venezuela, Colombia and the region. The current Colombian media campaign was
preceded by Washington's own efforts to condemn Venezuela for supposed
non-compliance in the war against drug trafficking. In addition, Israel's
foreign minister Avigdor Liberman also travelled throughout Latin America in
July claiming that Venezuela is a destabilizing force in the region and in
the Middle East.
Lost in all this, is the fact that Uribe is still considering a third term
in office and his party has indicated it will push for a constitutional
reform. So conflicts with Ecuador and Venezuela serves to silence critics in
Colombia and keep Uribe's electoral competitors at bay. All we need now is
for Uribe to ask the Interpol to verify the missiles origins and director
Ron Noble to give another press conference in Bogota. Déjà vu all over
again!
The right and its allies in the U.S. are also emboldened by the electoral
victory in Panama and the very real prospects of leftist defeats this year
in Chile and even Uruguay. Obviously they are also encouraged by the
humiliating defeat of the Fernández / Kirchner's in Argentina. These
developments could begin to redraw the political map of the region. Correa
of Ecuador has already expressed concern about being the target of a coup
and Bolivia will undoubtedly come under intense pressure as they are also
preparing for an election later this year.
All this is occurring with an increased U.S. military commitment in Mexico
with Plan Mérida which seeks to build on the lessons of Colombia; maintain
in power a president whose economic and social policy are highly unpopular,
but who relies on conflict, in this case the so-called war on the drug
cartels, to maintain popularity. Parts of Mexico are literally under siege
including, Michoacán, Ciudad Juarez, and Tijuana. The backdrop for this is a
divided left, the PRD was the biggest looser in recent midterm elections,
and social movements remains localized and unable to mount a national
challenge.
None of these developments are forgone conclusions, but they nonetheless
speak to the fact that conservative forces in Latin America and their allies
in the U.S. are mounting a concerted counter offensive that could increase
the potential for conflict in the region.
Miguel Tinker Salas is Professor of History at Pomona College. He is the
author of The Enduring Legacy: Oil, Culture and Society in Venezuela.
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