interesting to weigh this against today's election in Iran. Enjoy.
ed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/jun/09/obama-middle-east-iran
Now Obama Must Include Iran in an Axis of Respect
If he can break with decades of divide and rule in the Middle East,
the president will make a real contribution to peace
By Jonathan Steele
Guardian (UK): June 10, 2009
Was it coincidence that Barack Obama scheduled his speech to Muslims last
week on the eve of two closely fought regional elections - in Lebanon last
Sunday and Iran this Friday? Now the "pro-western" coalition has won a
narrow victory in Lebanon, some of the US president's supporters are
suggesting his timing was indeed calculated.
If so, it was disingenuous. Under Lebanon's complex constitution the seats
reserved for Sunnis and Shias were fixed, and Sunday's result turned on the
way Christians rather than Muslims voted. A majority showed their
disappointment and anger with the senior Christian politician, General
Michel Aoun, who aligned himself with the Shias. After the usual weeks of
negotiation Lebanon is likely to continue with a national unity government,
and the real task for Obama is not to discourage the victorious
Sunni-Druze-Christian alliance from inviting the Shias, and in particular
Hezbollah, into their cabinet.
The challenge goes beyond Lebanon. Has Obama changed US policy in the
region towards one of inclusion rather than the divide-and-rule strategy of
his predecessors, Democratic and Republican? George Bush tried hard to
exacerbate Sunni/Shia suspicions, using them to increase Arab/Iranian ones.
He named Iran in his "axis of evil" and played on the domestic insecurities
of conservative Sunni leaders in Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia by building
up an image of an allegedly expansionist Iran.
Obama is too smart to try directly to influence Iran's election, especially
as President Ahmadinejad's strongest opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is
already being branded a US agent by the entourage of Iran's supreme leader.
Any expression from Washington of hope in Mousavi would certainly backfire.
Debate in Tehran over dialogue with the US is more intense than it is in
Washington where a consensus for trying to normalise relations now seems
firmly established. In his Cairo speech Obama offered Iran talks "without
preconditions". His apology for the US role (helped by Britain) in toppling
the democratically elected Mossadeq government in 1953 was a big step
forward.
Mousavi is the candidate who most favours dialogue with the US, and he
appears to be galvanising the more modern sectors of Iranian society, in
part by his forthright attacks on Ahmadinejad for undermining Iran's
international prestige with his Holocaust denials and wild language. But
Iranian presidential voting usually goes to a second round, and a Mousavi
victory on Friday does not guarantee his election.
The Obama speech contained other important nuances. Although he listed the
usual points that Hamas must accept in the context of peace, he did not make
them preconditions for US contacts. If this means an end to the boycott of
Hamas officials, and of Hamas ministers if a united Palestinian government
emerges, this would be significant. Obama also deplored Sunni-Shia tensions
across the region. He devoted only one sentence to the point, but this too
is an important shift.
Short of helping to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, the biggest
contribution Obama could make to Middle Eastern peace would be to end the
unfounded perception of an Iranian threat. Iran was built up by Washington
and London to become policeman of the Gulf during the shah's time. Since his
overthrow the Islamic republic has projected much less military power in the
region; and in the 1980s Iran was the victim of Arab/Iraqi aggression. In
subsequent decades it has attempted to gain influence largely through the
conventional routes of diplomacy, trade and investment.
Certainly, it is easy to stimulate anti-Iranian prejudice, not least in
today's Iraq where Sunni suspicions are, sadly, intense now the country is
led by Shias with close links to Tehran. Al-Qaida-inspired Sunni/Shia
bloodletting in Iraq in 2006 and 2007 has left a deep legacy of bitterness.
But there are countervailing tendencies in the region. Qatar hosted
Ahmadinejad in January for a pro-Hamas summit that was also attended by
Oman. Many Arab Sunnis find Saudi-sponsored Wahhabism with its lavish funds
for mosque-building and fundamentalist propaganda more menacing than
Shi'ism.
The region's central issue is the conflict over an Israeli-Palestinian modus
vivendi, and the real reasons why Iran has been demonised in Washington are
linked to that. One is that Iran leads an "axis of resistance" to Israel's
refusal to go back to its 1967 borders - and works with (Sunni) Hamas,
(Shia) Hezbollah, and (bit of both) Syria to confront it. The other is that
post-shah Iran is independent. From Cuba to Venezuela and Belarus to China,
Washington has always been reluctant to deal evenly with countries that
reject its embrace. In Cairo Obama spoke much of "mutual respect". The test
is to show he means it.
Hamas and Hezbollah officials have often indicated that resistance will end
once a two-state solution, the principle of refugees' right to return, and
shared control over Jerusalem are agreed. The so-called threat from Iran
depends intimately on the threat from Israel. Talk of an expansionist Iran
is propaganda compared with the historical reality of a demonstrably
expansionist Israel.
Can Obama break the mould of decades? His vice-president, Joe Biden,
recently hinted that US subsidies to Lebanon would be undermined if the
opposition had won Sunday's poll. What of US subsidies to a government in
Israel that openly opposes US policy - are they sacrosanct?
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