Cast Lead 2
By Uri Avnery
Gush Shalom: 26.12.09
DID WE win? Tomorrow marks the first anniversary of the Gaza War, alias
Operation Cast Lead, and this question fills the public space.
Within the Israeli consensus, the answer has already been given: Certainly
we won, the Qassams have stopped coming.
A simple, not to say primitive, answer. But that is how it looks to the
superficial observer. There were the Qassams, we made war, no more Qassams.
Sderot is thriving, the inhabitants of Beersheba go to the theater.
Everything else is for philosophy professors.
But anyone who wishes to understand the results of this war has to pose some
hard questions.
Was the real aim of the war to stop the Qassams? Could this have been
achieved by other means? If there were other aims, what were they? Is the
final balance sheet positive or negative, as far as the interests of Israel
are concerned?
I PITY the historians. They have to scrutinize documents, peruse protocols,
disentangle tortuous texts.
Documents are misleading. If Talleyrand (or whoever it was) was right in
saying that words were invented in order to hide thoughts, this is even more
true for documents. Documents falsify facts, hide facts, invent facts – all
according to the interests of the writer. They disclose a little to hide the
rest. Anyone who has been involved in public affairs knows this.
Therefore, let's ignore the protocols. What were the real aims of those who
started the war? I believe that they were as follows, in order of decreasing
priority:
To overthrow the regime in Gaza, by turning the life of the inhabitants into
such hell that they would rise up against Hamas.
To return to the Government and the army their self respect, which had been
severely damaged in Lebanon War II.
To restore the deterrent power of the Israeli army.
To stop the Qassams.
To free the captive soldier, Gilad Shalit.
Let's examine the results, one by one.
THIS WEEK, hundreds of thousands gathered in the Gaza Strip for a
demonstration in support of Hamas. Judging from the photos, there were
between 200 and 400 thousand. Considering that there are about 1.5 million
inhabitants in the Strip, most of them children, that was quite an
impressive turnout - especially in view of the misery caused by the Israeli
blockade that has continued throughout the year and the ruined homes that
could not be rebuilt. Those who believed that the pressure on the population
would cause an uprising against the Hamas government have been proved wrong.
History buffs were not surprised. When attacked by a foreign foe, every
people unites behind its leaders, whoever they are. Pity that our
politicians and generals don't read books.
Our commentators portray the inhabitants of Gaza as "looking with longing at
the flourishing shops of Ramallah". These commentators also derive hope from
public opinion polls that purport to show that the popularity of Hamas in
the West Bank is declining. If so, why is Fatah afraid of conducting
elections, even after all Hamas activists there have been thrown into
prison?
It seems that most of the people in the Gaza Strip are more or less
satisfied with the functioning of the Hamas government. In spite of the
misery of their lives, they may also be proud of its steadfastness. There is
order in the streets, crime and drugs are decreasing. Hamas is trying
cautiously to promote a religious agenda in daily life, and it seems that
the public does not mind.
The main aim of the operation has failed completely.
THE SECOND aim, on the other hand, has been achieved. The Olmert government,
which lost public confidence in Lebanon War II, won it back in the Gaza War.
That did not help Olmert himself – he had to resign because of the cloud of
corruption affairs hovering over his head.
The army has restored its self-confidence. It has proved that the military
deficiencies, that came to light at every step in the Lebanon War, were
superficial. The public believes that in Gaza the army functioned well. The
fact that a total of six Israeli soldiers were killed by enemy fire, while
over a thousand people died on the other side, has reinforced this belief.
Only few people are bothered by moral scruples.
THE QUESTION whether the third aim – deterrence - has been achieved is
closely connected with another question: Who won the war militarily?
In a war between a regular army and a guerrilla force, it is hard to decide
what "victory" means. In a classic battle between armies, victory belongs to
the side which remains in control of the battlefield once the fighting ends.
Obviously that does not apply in an asymmetrical contest. The Israeli army
did not want to stay in the Gaza Strip – on the contrary, it was very keen
to avoid such a possibility.
Some argue that Hamas won the war: if a band of ill-armed guerrillas holds
out for three whole weeks against one of the strongest armies in the world,
that constitutes a victory. There is a lot of truth in that.
On the other hand, the deterrent force of the army has certainly been
restored. All Palestinian factions and all Arab forces in general, now know
that the Israeli army is prepared to kill and destroy without any restraint
in any military confrontation. From now on, the Hamas leaders – as well as
the Hizbullah chiefs – will think twice before provoking it.
THE QASSAMS have stopped almost completely. Hamas has even imposed its
authority on the small, extreme factions, which wanted to continue.
No doubt the newly restored deterrent force of the army has had a bearing on
that. But it is also true that the army is taking great care not to cause
regular incidents, as was their wont before Cast Lead. At least for now, the
deterrence in the Gaza theatre is mutual.
It can be asked whether a means could have been found to stop the Qassams
short of war. If the Israeli government had recognized the Hamas authorities
in the Gaza Strip – at least de facto – and maintained businesslike
relations with them, and if it had not imposed the blockade – could the
missiles have been stopped? I do believe so.
THE RELEASE of Shalit – a secondary but important aim in itself – has not
been achieved. If Shalit is freed, it will happen only as part of a prisoner
exchange, and that will look like a huge victory for Hamas.
TAKING INTO consideration all these results, one can draw the conclusion
that the war has ended in a kind of draw.
Except for Goldstone.
This war has dealt a fatal blow to Israel's standing in the world.
Is that important? David Ben-Gurion famously said that "it is not important
what the Goyim say but what the Jews do." Thomas Jefferson, on the other
hand, said that no nation can afford to behave without "a decent respect for
the opinions of mankind". Jefferson was right. "What the Goyim say" has an
immense impact on all the spheres of our life - from the political arena to
security matters. The standing of our state in the world is a vital factor
in our national security.
The Gaza War – from the decision to throw the army into a densely populated
area to the use of white phosphorus and flechette munitions – has raised a
dark cloud over Israel. The Goldstone report, coming as it did after the
gruesome pictures broadcast throughout the war by all the world's TV
networks, has produced a terrible impression. Hundreds of millions of people
saw and heard, and their attitude towards Israel has changed for the worse.
This will have far-reaching impact on the decisions of governments, the
attitude of the media and in thousands of big and small decisions concerning
Israel.
Almost all our spokesmen and journalists, from the President down to the
last TV talk-show host, keep parroting that the Goldstone report is
"one-sided", "vile" and "lying". But people around the world know that it is
as honest a report as could be expected after our government's decision to
boycott the investigation. The damage increases from day to day. Some of it
is irreversible.
It is impossible to measure the results of the war without laying this fact
on the scales. The upshot is that the damage done to us by the war outweighs
any benefits.
Some people in our leadership silently accept this conclusion. But there is
no lack of voices – both in the leadership and in the street - which talk
openly about a "Cast Lead 2" as being just a matter of time.
A saying attributed to Bismarck goes: Fools learn from their own experience,
clever people learn from the experience of others. Where does that leave us?
***
*JUSTICE FOR GAZA
What : Silent Candlelight Vigil--Justice For Gaza
When: Monday, December 28, 2009, 5:00 to 6:30 p.m
Where: In front of the Israeli Consulate, 6380 Wilshire Blvd, Los Angeles
90048
Please bring your own candle (or paper-covered flashlight). We will
maintain silence except for the designated speakers. Only one banner will
be displayed. For more info or to add your organization as a sponsor:
vtamoush@gmail.com or (714) 362-7676
***Sponsored by:
* LA Jews For Peace * FOR-LA (Fellowship of Reconcilliation)
* Bartimaeus Cooperative Ministries * Campaign to End Israeli Apartheid,
* St. Anselm of Canterbury Episcopal Church * Islamic Shura Council
* Kinder USA * Friends of Sabeel Orange County * Los Amgeles Chapter -
National Lawyes Guild * Campaign to End Israeli Apartheid * Jews for Peace
Between Israelis and Palestinians * Women In Black - Los Angeles * Orange
County Peace & Freedom Party * Orange Ccounty KPFK Peace Support Group
* US Committee for Academic and Cultural Boycott of Israel (USCOM4ACBI)
* Anti-Racist Action - L.A./ People Against Racist Terror * Middle East
Fellowship of Southern California * Friends of SABEEL LOS ANGELES
* Muslims for Progressive Values * South and West Asia & North Africa
Collective/Radio Intifada/KPFK
* CODE PINK, * OOA, * Veterans For Peace
*AND THE LIST CONTINUES TO GROW!*
- - -
http://www.gazafreedommarch.org/solidarity
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
* December 26, 2009
For contact information:
In Cairo: Ann Wright, 019 508 1493, **microann@yahoo.com**
In Europe (Portugal): Ziyaad Lunat, +351938349206,
**z.lunat@googlemail.com**
In US: Nancy Mancias, 1 (415) 342-6409,
**codepink.nancy@gmail.com*
*International Campaign in Support of the **Gaza** Freedom March*
Thousands of Unison Actions Assembled around the World
A massive mobilization between December 27, 2009 and January 1, 2010 with
candlelight vigils, concerts, marches, demonstrations, art installations and
movie screenings will assemble all over the world to send a clear message to
world leaders: end the siege on Gaza.
To tackle the blockade against Gaza, grassroots activists are moving quickly
and acting in unison for an absolutley crucial time. Dec. 27 will mark one
year since the Israeli attack and invasion of the Gaza Strip. Although the
Israeli tanks have left, the complete closure of the borders continues.
In order to unite the public to influence public leaders behind the Gaza
Freedom March goals, solidarity action organizers harnessed the power of the
internet to coordinate a global week of actions. There will be actions at
many places around the world: France, United Kingdom, Turkey, Ireland,
Germany, Spain, United States, Afghanistan, Australia, Belgium, Switzerland,
Sweden, Jordan, Canada, Israel/Palestine, Poland, Denmark, and Greece.
On December 31, 2009, more than 1,400 citizens from across the world will
travel to Cairo to join the Gaza Freedom March. This historic non-violent
action has been organized by The International Coalition to End the Illegal
Siege of Gaza. Its objective is to draw international attention to the siege
and blockade of Gaza which are illegal under international law.
According to the United Nations, the most recent invasion left 1,400
Palestinian civilians dead, thousands injured and hundreds of thousands
homeless, many of whom still live in tents. Many more are living in the
ruins of their houses or with relatives. It is now one year later, and no
progress has been made. In fact the situation is more dire than ever.
Hospitals lack many medicines and supplies to provide even routine medical
care. Building materials so desperately needed after the last winter's
invasion by Israel are not permitted into Gaza.
Israel's blockade of Gaza is a flagrant violation of international law that
has led to mass suffering. The U.S., Egypt and the rest of the international
community are complicit. The law is clear. The conscience of humankind is
shocked. Yet, the siege of Gaza continues.
For more information about the Gaza Freedom March global actions visit:
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