http://socialistworker.org/2011/02/07/bid-to-derail-the-revolution
A bid to derail the revolution
Ahmed Shawki provides the view from Cairo as the Mubarak regime switches
strategy from the hard hand of repression to stalling for time with
negotiations.
Comment: Ahmed Shawki
February 7, 2011
EGYPT'S NEW Vice President Omar Suleiman presided over talks with opposition
groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, over the weekend. But Suleiman
insisted that the man who appointed him in January, dictator Hosni Mubarak,
would remain in power until elections in September--in defiance of the mass
uprising that has put millions in the streets and reached into every corner
of the country.
Officials from the U.S. government and its European allies likewise defied
the wishes of the overwhelming majority of Egyptians, signaling that they
supported Suleiman's attempt to meet with opposition figures while defending
Mubarak's ongoing reign--further proof, if any was needed, that "stability"
means far more to the U.S. government than democracy.
Meanwhile, as the meetings with Suleiman were taking place, crowds
continued to pour into Tahrir Square on both Saturday and Sunday. Indeed,
as this article was being written on Sunday night in Egypt, larger and
larger numbers of people appeared to be showing up.
Earlier in the day, despite rain falling in downtown Cairo--quite an unusual
event--there were lines of thousands upon thousands of people waiting to get
into the square. This has become a familiar scene of the last few days--to
be funneled into the square through an army checkpoint, and then to be
searched by organizers of the demonstrations in Tahrir.
But all the waiting and hassles of going through these searches dissipate
when you get through--as you're greeted by hundreds of people chanting and
clapping for you, welcoming you into the square.
Priority at the checkpoints was given to people bringing food, water,
blankets, medical supplies and other forms of support to those who are
occupying Tahrir Square. In the square itself, the organization and
distribution of these supplies took place seamlessly. The square has been
reorganized, with a kind of tent city emerging--semi-permanent structures
that dot the square for people who plan to stay for the duration.
These are the expressions in substance of the continuing sentiment of the
demonstrators--that they will stay until Hosni Mubarak goes.
Among the most interesting things at the square now are the impromptu
demonstrations that take place each day, and that continued today. These are
demonstrations by groups of people representing particular forces or
political views. They hold their marches and speakouts to the applause of
others in the square.
But what was most striking today is the enormous and vibrant political
debate taking place among activists themselves--how to respond to a
situation where Mubarak has been shaken, but still refuses to leave office.
What underlies that debate is a bigger question: what to do next.
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CLEARLY, THE regime has a new strategy--an attempt to try to overcome and
bypass the protests.
The regime tried the hard hand of repression on two occasions. One occasion
was in the first week, with an attempt to stop the demonstrators with the
police--the method used successfully against previous unrest. But the police
were driven back, to the point where the government had to withdraw them
from the streets.
Last Tuesday, the demonstrations reached a new high point, with an estimated
6 million to 8 million people taking to the streets around the country.
Mubarak went on television to vow that he would remain in office, though he
wouldn't run for reelection--and the next day, the security forces and
supporters of the regime were unleashed in brutal attacks to try to move the
demonstrators out of the square.
The violence was terrible, with the number of injured running into the
thousands, but the anti-Mubarak demonstrators responded with a heroic
defense of their protest in Tahrir.
After having been defeated with their attempts at repression, the regime has
clearly moved on to a new tactic. Today, they tried to reopen Cairo under
some form of normalcy. The banks reopened, people were encouraged to go to
work, and the regime pushed back the curfew hours so people can be out from
8 a.m. until 10 p.m.
This is an attempt, I think, to try to normalize life again--and in a sense
isolate the demonstrators in Tahrir by making their presence an everyday
feature of life that doesn't paralyze Cairo or the rest of the country.
The problem with the strategy, though, is that the demands of the protesters
have not been met--and the impact of this huge uprising goes much deeper
than what the government imagines, even now after nearly two weeks of
demonstrations.
Tahrir Square continues to be the center and the symbol of the movement--and
that's why it's been important to maintain a presence there and defend it
from attack. But at the same time, the rest of the country has been turned
upside down.
This is a mass upheaval of a population emerging from 30 years of military
dictatorship--not to mention the years before that, which weren't exactly
free and open. So not just in Tahrir Square, but in every town and city
across Egypt, the movement to bring down Mubarak is flourishing and
flowering.
From the reports I've gathered, there have been very, very sharp battles in
other places--in particular, in the port cities of Suez, Alexandria and Port
Said. These mobilizations haven't had the same attention as the iconic ones
in Tahrir Square, but they're taking place in towns that are poorer, with
higher levels of unemployment and with a history of police violence. So
these demonstrations have been explosive, and they've contributed to the
sense that this is a movement of the whole country against Mubarak.
That's the problem with trying to isolate the demonstrators in Tahrir Square
or the attempt go back to business as usual--the revolt has spread to every
corner of the country, and no one thinks it's over.
Beyond that, it's not really clear to anyone here what negotiations would
actually accomplish in terms of the basic demands of the
protesters--certainly not so long as Mubarak remains in office, and also not
if the person in charge of the "peaceful transition" is Omar Suleiman, who
ran the regime's national intelligence agency for almost 20 years, and who
says he agreed to become vice president to support Mubarack in "these
critical times."
Over the weekend, you had two things happening simultaneously. First, the
government announced it was freezing the bank accounts and opening
investigations of more former and current ministers--in other words, an
attempt to pin the blame on individual ministers for the corruption of the
entire system, and the violent response of the whole regime to the
demonstrations.
Second, Suleiman organized the negotiations with opposition
organizations--including the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Mubarak regime
has repressed for decades. The Brotherhood was very slow to participate in
the demonstrations, even when they reached a critical mass--something that's
not lost on people here, wherever they stand on the left or the right. But
now Suleiman is attempting to bring them into an arrangement that keeps the
regime intact.
Many reports in the media treated the talks themselves as a concession on
the part of the anti-Mubarak opposition. But if you read the stories all the
way through, the Muslim Brotherhood spokespeople, for example, said they
came to hear what the government had to say, but remained firm that Mubarak
had to go immediately.
It would be difficult for any of the opposition figures, no matter how
moderate, to go along with everything the regime wants right now. Anybody
involved in these negotiations has to be looking over their shoulders. Now
that the movement has reached such a size and level of commitment, they
can't just say any old thing to please the media. They have to be careful
that what they say isn't rejected by the masses of people who remain
determined to get rid of Mubarak.
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THE REGIME is obviously trying to buy some time in the hope that the numbers
of demonstrators dwindle--so they can exhaust the movement and eventually
try to deal with a more contained force.
From the point of view of the movement, I think there's a sense of
trepidation and uncertainty among many people, including at Tahrir Square.
Everybody understands that the standoff can't continue indefinitely.
So there's a discussion taking place now about to how to step up the
pressure on the regime and how the movement can continue to push for its
demands. One discussion, for example, is the possibility of a march from
Tahrir Square to the Information Ministry--or, as was proposed previously, a
march toward the presidential palace.
One thing that definitely is not happening, however, is a weakening of
resolve about getting rid of Mubarak.
As we enter this new stage, one thing should be remembered, and remembered
very clearly--the mass movement has already won an enormously significant
victory in becoming conscious of its own strength, and in having resisted
the regime's attempts at repression. That is a huge accomplishment under a
military dictatorship. People understand that they are players in this
battle.
The next step, which people are discussing and discussing widely, is how to
deepen the roots of the mass movement, in different localities and
communities, and in the workplaces around Egypt.
Tahrir Square is now the symbol of the struggle, but the future of the
movement is in its ability to sink roots and in the neighborhoods and towns
and cities where the hundreds of thousands of people who risked their lives
in Tahrir Square came from.
Transcription by Karen Domínguez Burke
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