are marching throughout their country - That is, 1/4 of the population are
risking life and limb for a democracy! I understand the ruling military is
divided three ways; the top commanders long time friends and cohorts
of Mubarak are few, but this is the military. They include VP Suleiman, but
also the head of the Army, who broke unity and issued orders not to harm
peaceful demonstrators. The next level, field commanders, are divided,
becuse their junion officers and forces under them have open sympathy
for the demonsters. Clearly, what happens next is problematic. To follow
events and for informed, honest analysis, here's my list of sources.
Al Jazeera on your computer: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/
One picture, etc. 'Nuff said.
www.DemocracyNow.org. By far the best sourse for unvarnished reportage,
variety of opinion and honest debate. Consider that senior editor Sharif
Abdel Kouddous, Egyptian-born and now on the job in Cairo, is used by
our major tv networks as reporter on the ground.
And the variety of opiners, like Robert Fisk, below. But also Juan Cole,
John Pilger, Ahmed Shawki (young socialist), and others. If you like
what I send, just log on to their publishers and get it yourself.
Fisk's article is the best I've seen, this morning.
Ed
As Mubarak clings on... What now for Egypt?
The fury of a people whose hopes were raised and then dashed
by Robert Fisk:
The Independent/uk: Friday, 11 February, 2011
To the horror of Egyptians and the world, President Hosni Mubarak - haggard
and
apparently disoriented - appeared on state television last night to refuse
every demand of his opponents by staying in power for at least another five
months. The Egyptian army, which had already initiated a virtual coup
d'état, was nonplussed by the President's speech which had been widely
advertised - by both his friends and his enemies - as a farewell address
after 30 years of dictatorship. The vast crowds in Tahrir Square were almost
insane with anger and resentment.
Mubarak tried - unbelievably - to placate his infuriated people with a
promise to investigate the killings of his opponents in what he called "the
unfortunate, tragic events", apparently unaware of the mass fury directed at
his dictatorship for his three decades of corruption, brutality and
repression.
The old man had originally appeared ready to give up, faced at last with the
rage of millions of Egyptians and the power of history, sealed off from his
ministers like a bacillus, only grudgingly permitted by his own army from
saying goodbye to the people who hated him.
Yet the very moment that Hosni Mubarak embarked on what was supposed to be
his final speech, he made it clear that he intended to cling to power. To
the end, the President's Information Minister insisted he would not leave.
There were those who, to the very last moment, feared that Mubarak's
departure would be cosmetic - even though his presidency had evaporated in
the face of his army's decision to take power earlier in the evening.
History may later decide that the army's lack of faith in Mubarak
effectively lost his presidency after three decades of dictatorship, secret
police torture and government corruption. Confronted by even greater
demonstrations on the streets of Egypt today, even the army could not
guarantee the safety of the nation. Yet for Mubarak's opponents, today will
not be a day of joy and rejoicing and victory but a potential bloodbath.
But was this a victory for Mubarak or a military coup d'état? Can Egypt ever
be free? For the army generals to insist upon his departure was as dramatic
as it was dangerous. Are they, a state within a state, now truly the
guardians of the nation, defenders of the people - or will they continue to
support a man who must be judged now as close to insanity? The chains which
bound the military to the corruption of Mubarak's regime were real. Are they
to stand by democracy - or cement a new Mubarak regime?
Even as Mubarak was still speaking, the millions in Tahrir Square roared
their anger and fury and disbelief. Of course, the millions of courageous
Egyptians who fought the whole apparatus of state security run by Mubarak
should have been the victors. But as yesterday afternoon's events proved all
too clearly, it was the senior generals - who enjoy the luxury of hotel
chains, shopping malls, real estate and banking concessions from the same
corrupt regime - who permitted Mubarak to survive. At an ominous meeting of
the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces, Defence Minister Mohamed
Tantawi - one of Mubarak's closest friends - agreed to meet the demands of
the millions of democracy protesters, without stating that the regime would
itself be dissolved. Mubarak himself, commander-in-chief of the army, was
not permitted to attend.
But this is a Middle Eastern epic, one of those incremental moments when the
Arab people - forgotten, chastised, infantilised, repressed, often beaten,
tortured too many times, occasionally hanged - will still strive to give the
great wheel of history a shove, and shake off the burden of their lives.
Last night, however, dictatorship had still won. Democracy had lost.
All day, the power of the people had grown as the prestige of the President
and his hollow party collapsed. The vast crowds in Tahrir Square began
yesterday to move out over all of central Cairo, even moving behind the
steel gates of the People's Assembly, setting up their tents in front of the
pseudo-Greek parliament building in a demand for new and fair elections.
Today, they were planning to enter the parliament itself, taking over the
symbol of Mubarak's fake "democracy". Fierce arguments among the army
hierarchy - and apparently between Vice-President Omar Suleiman and Mubarak
himself - continued while strikes and industrial stoppages spread across
Egypt. Well over seven million protesters were estimated to be on the
streets of Egypt yesterday - the largest political demonstration in the
country's modern history, greater even than the six million who attended the
funeral of Gamal Abdul Nasser, the first Egyptian dictator whose rule
continued through Anwar Sadat's vain presidency and the three dead decades
of Mubarak.
It was too early, last night, for the crowds in Tahrir Square to understand
the legal complexities of Mubarak's speech. But it was patronising,
self-serving and immensely dangerous. The Egyptian constitution insists that
presidential power must pass to the speaker of parliament, a colourless
Mubarak crony called Fatih Srour, and elections - fair ones, if this can be
imagined - held within 60 days. But many believe that Suleiman may choose to
rule by some new emergency law and then push Mubarak out of power, staking
out a timetable for new and fraudulent elections and yet another terrible
epoch of dictatorship. The truth, however, is that
the millions of Egyptians who have tried to unseat their Great Dictator
regard their constitution - and the judiciary and the entire edifice of
government institutions - with the same contempt as they do Mubarak. They
want a new constitution, new laws to limit the powers and tenure of
presidents, new and early elections which will reflect the "will of the
people" rather than the will of the president or the transition president,
or of generals and brigadiers and state security thugs.
Last night, a military officer guarding the tens of thousands celebrating in
Cairo threw down his rifle and joined the demonstrators, yet another sign of
the ordinary Egyptian soldier's growing sympathy for the democracy
demonstrators. We had witnessed many similar sentiments from the army over
the past two weeks. But the critical moment came on the evening of 30
January when, it is now clear, Mubarak ordered the Egyptian Third Army to
crush the demonstrators in Tahrir Square with their tanks after flying F-16
fighter bombers at low level over the protesters.
Many of the senior tank commanders could be seen tearing off their
headsets - over which they had received the fatal orders - to use their
mobile phones. They were, it now transpires, calling their own military
families for advice. Fathers who had spent their lives serving the Egyptian
army told their sons to disobey, that they must never kill their own people.
Thus when General Hassan al-Rawani told the massive crowds yesterday evening
that "everything you want will be realised - all your demands will be met",
the people cried back: "The army and the people stand together - the army
and the people are united. The army and the people belong to one hand."
Last night, the Cairo court prevented three ministers - so far unnamed,
although they almost certainly inc-lude the Minister of Interior - from
leaving Egypt.
But neither the army nor Vice-President Suleiman are likely to be able to
face the far greater demonstrations planned for today, a fact that was
conveyed to 83-year-old Mubarak by Tantawi himself, standing next to
Suleiman. Tantawi and another general - believed to be the commander of the
Cairo military area - called Washington, according to a senior Egyptian
officer, to pass on the news to Robert Gates at the Pentagon. It must have
been a sobering moment. For days, the White House had been grimly observing
the mass demonstrations in Cairo, fearful that they would turn into a
mythical Islamist monster, frightened that Mubarak might leave, even more
terrified he might not.
The events of the past 12 hours have not, alas, been a victory for the West.
American and European leaders who rejoiced at the fall of communist
dictatorships have sat glumly regarding the extraordinary and wildly hopeful
events in Cairo - a victory of morality over corruption and cruelty - with
the same enthusiasm as many East European dictators watched the fall of
their Warsaw Pact nations. Calls for stability and an "orderly" transition
of power were, in fact, appeals for Mubarak to stay in power - as he is
still trying to do - rather than a ringing endorsement of the demands of the
overwhelming pro-democracy movement that should have struck him down.
Timeline...
11.00 As demonstrators mass in Cairo's Tahrir Square, the Foreign Minister
warns of a military coup if protests continue
15.15 The Egyptian Prime Minister, Ahmed Shafiq, tells the BBC Arabic
Service that Mubarak may step down
15.20 The secretary general of the ruling NDP party, Hossan Badrawy, says he
expects Mubarak to make an announcement that will satisfy protesters'
demands
15.30 An Egyptian army commander tells protesters in Tahrir Square that:
"Everything you want will be realised"
15.45 Egypt's military council releases a statement saying it is in
continuous session and the army will take necessary measures to "safeguard
the homeland", in the clearest sign that Mubarak will be on his way out soon
16.04 The Information Minister, Anas el-Fekky, says Mubarak is in fact not
stepping down and remains Egypt's President
16.15 Al Arabiya television station carries an unconfirmed report that
Mubarak has travelled to the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh with his army
chief of staff
17.11 A senior member of the Muslim Brotherhood, the biggest opposition
group, says he fears the army is staging a coup
20.50 Defying expectations Mubarak speaks on state TV, giving no indication
that he will step down soon
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